Football: Looking at Pac-5 Division playoff possibilities

There are two valuable at-large berths available for the 16-team Pac-5 Division football playoffs in the Southern Sectiong. Eric Maddy, our crack stats guru from Calpreps, has come up with some projections looking at where things stand going into the final week of the regular season and making some assumptions that there won’t be any key upsets in the final week of Pac-5 action.

The at-large criteria in choosing two teams involves a point system: head to head (four points); overall strength of league (one point); overall win-loss record (one point); strength against common opponents (one point); strength of schedule using overall record of opponents (two points).

In simple terms, Servite is a strong candidate to receive the first at-large berth. The second could go to Westlake or Chaminade depending on what past opponents of those two schools do this week. But if JSerra were to defeat Orange Lutheran in the Trinity League and Westlake were to beat Oaks Christian in the Marmonte League, get ready for a little chaos. That could produce a three-way tie for third place in the Trinity and a three-way tie for first in the Marmonte, resulting in coin flips.

AUTOMATIC BERTHS (PROJECTED)

Big VIII 3 Centennial (10-0), Norco (8-2), Santiago (5-5)

Marmonte 2 Oaks Christian (10-0), St. Bonaventure (7-3)

Mission 3 Serra (9-1), Bishop Amat (8-2), Loyola (8-2)

Moore 3 Long Beach Poly (8-2), Wilson (8-2), Lakewood (4-6)

Trinity 3 St. John Bosco (10-0), Mater Dei (8-2), Orange Lutheran (6-4)

PROJECTED AT-LARGE ELIGIBLES

Big VIII Corona (6-4), Roosevelt (2-8)

Marmonte Westlake (7-3), Moorpark (5-5)

Mission Chaminade (6-4), Alemany (6-4)

Moore Jordan (3-7), Millikan (3-7)

Trinity Servite (4-6), Santa Margarita (5-5)

PROJECTED LEAGUE STRENGTH: Trinity, Mission, Marmonte, Big VIII, Moore

FIRST BERTH -- Comparisons between Corona, Westlake, Chaminade, Jordan, and Servite. Corona and Jordan don’t win any comparisons. Servite wins all of its comparisons and gets the first berth.

Westlake vs. Chaminade TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Chaminade plays in stronger league (1 point)

Westlake has better record (1 point)

Chaminade beat St. Bonaventure, which beat Westlake (1 point to Chaminade)

Chaminade opponents project to 63-37. Westlake opponents project to 63-38. TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

Westlake vs. Servite. Servite 3-1

Servite plays in stronger league (1 point)

Westlake has better record (1 point)

Both beat Santa Margarita (no point)

Servite opponents project to 77-24. Westlake opponents project to 63-38. (2 points to Servite).

Chaminade vs. Servite. Servite 3-1

Servite plays in stronger league (1 point)

Chaminade has better record (1 point)

Both lost to Bishop Amat (no point)

Servite opponents project to 77-24. Chaminade opponents project to 63-37. (2 points to Servite).

If Orange Lutheran ends up fourth, they will get the at-large berth. If JSerra is fourth, Westlake has edge but Chaminade-JSerra is even.

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