COMMUNITY COMMENTARY

Heather Somers

Much has been stated concerning the potential expansion of John Wayne

Airport if an El Toro airport is not built. With the county’s

environmental report studied, there is not only the proposed El Toro

airport, but also two alternatives -- labeled as F and G -- that deal

with the expansion of John Wayne.

However, the report did not address certain significant financial impacts

that would be of interest to all of us. For example, the expansion of

John Wayne would be $4.3 billion for Alternative G. That is 33% more than

if we built El Toro airport at a cost of $2.9 billion.

That’s right. Expanding John Wayne is much more costly and far less

suitable, at about one-tenth the size of El Toro. What does the $4.3

billion cover? It accounts for the cost to acquire the land, demolish

buildings, build new facilities and modify roads.

That information alone is staggering. But what about the other related

consequences of this expansion that have not yet been quantified in any

report? What are the impacts on the individual business owners and the

tax loss for Costa Mesa and Newport Beach? Affected business owners would

be disrupted prior, during and after such a massive construction process.

How would one begin to put a value on the anxiety of finding out you have

to relocate, possibly lose business in the transition and then resume

business activities in a new location? What sort of valuation could

building owners and developers expect to capture under these

circumstances? How would such a move affect employees? Would some lose

their jobs or homes?

With regard to our cities, what would be the amount of lost revenue that

would have been generated by these displaced businesses, such as hotels,

which generate a 6% to 10% bed tax? A preliminary scan of the business

licenses on file with the city of Costa Mesa, indicates that there are

nearly 1,400 businesses that would be impacted as a result of John Wayne

expansion. They represent a diverse array of industries, such as

computer, financial, health, travel and home decorating services, to

mention a few.

Out of 1,389 businesses examined, 48% gross $500,000 or more annually!

Perhaps some businesses would simply relocate in another city. What would

this do to the jobs/housing ratio? Which residents would be severely

impacted or displaced? What would this do to our city tax base and city

services?

The demolition and construction is expected to take at least five years.

Traffic on the 405 (San Diego Freeway), the 55 (Costa Mesa Freeway), and

the 73 (San Joaquin Corridor) freeways would have to navigate around the

construction for those five years.

Slower moving surface traffic means more concentrated air pollution. The

405 is already a parking lot any given morning with commuter traffic.

Getting in and out of John Wayne in the interim could be a nightmare in

itself.

All the while, South County residents would be inline skating in their

new park -- or so they might think. The reality is that the proposed

Millennium Plan, a community of homes, universities and open space, is no

“walk in the park.”

Consider this. The Navy is responsible for cleaning up the closed El Toro

base to a certain level if the property is to be used for a commercial

airport. The term used is “industrial standards.” This would render it

usable for the first two phases of the proposed airport.

If the land is to be used for something like the Millennium Plan

development, it would have to be cleaned up to “residential standards”

and would rely on federal budget appropriations for such a purpose or

potentially become an additional Orange County taxpayer burden.

Even then, we would have to endure decades of cleanup and the

excruciatingly slow process of winning federal support in the form of

federal budget appropriations to achieve it.

That might only be achieved if Orange County could supply matching funds.

In short, we would have both an environmentally and politically

challenging quagmire in all our backyards before anything significant

could happen. I guess that means we would have a 4,700-acre weed patch

for at least 10 to 20 years.

On another financial level, the Millennium Plan has shown in two separate

analyses it will not live up to its fiscal promises. On the contrary, it

pencils out to be a taxpayer nightmare rather than a dream park. The

analyses looked at the Millennium Plan II’s special attractions, its

development costs and revenues and its fiscal impact to local government.

The special attractions it touts include a central park, sports stadium,

university campus and museums. Unfortunately, although these are

appealing, they depend primarily on speculative public and private entity

support, and they grossly underestimated or ignored capital costs for

these special uses.

For example, they “underestimated the annual maintenance costs for the

Central Park by more than 240%, which would add nearly $2 million a year

to ongoing public costs,” according to a report released in January by

INTERRA, a county-hired management consulting firm specializing in base

closures. The report goes on to say that significant development costs

were simply omitted to the tune of $226 million. As if this isn’t

disturbing enough, the plan actually generates more surface traffic than

the airport scenario.

I am not alone in concluding that the opponents of the El Toro Airport

are proposing an alternative that generates at least three negative

impacts that would be burdensome to all county residents, and especially

to those of us who live and work within a few miles of John Wayne

Airport.Firstly, the Millennium Plan is a less than stellar attempt to

dazzle the community. It frankly introduces more problems than it solves.

Secondly, the price both in dollars and upheaval for cleaning up El Toro

for use for something other than an airport is portentous.

Thirdly, economically we as a county lose in another way if we ship our

transportation responsibilities to other counties. Millions in federal

aviation-specific grants and State Transportation Improvement Plan

funding would be lost if we fail to plan for and meet the air passenger

and cargo demand in our own communities. Thus, if we choose not to

develop El Toro as Orange County’s future air transportation center, we

forfeit significant federal and state grant dollars.

HEATHER SOMERS

Costa Mesa Council Member