POLITICAL FORECAST : Mexico: Does the Existing Political System Still Work?

Can Mexico’s economic and political problems be solved within the existing political framework? The Times asked seven experts on Mexico.

Homero Aridjis

President of the Mexico-based Environmental Group of the 100

The traditional way of the Mexican political system is not working. The (peso) crisis is an economic earthquake whose epicenter is the poor. Policies have been decided without taking the people into account. As in the former Soviet Union, it is impossible to have economic development without democracy. I don’t believe (the Institutional Revolutionary Party) can survive another six years, even if things improve substantially.

M. Delal Baer

Senior fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Mexico Project

The PRI has agreed to another round of election reforms--an enormous step toward free elections. But there are always outstanding issues, such as campaign-finance reform. The (opposition) parties must agree to stop trying to destabilize every election, and everybody must agree that there are now new rules of the game. The government of Mexico has never been a totalitarian regime, so it has always been possible for a gradual solution, for an agreement for a liberalized government.

Carlos Monsivais

A cultural historian based in Mexico City

I don’t think there is even the shadow of unity. We need to confront the economic problems with unity, the capacity of society behind government. Nowadays, the government is suffering from a tremendous lack of credibility, and that makes it almost impossible for the president to appeal to the people.

It (the president’s message) is not even rejected; it is not heard. The economic debacle has created a giant lack of confidence. We need peace in Chiapas, we need the security of no more electoral fraud. The agreement is a step; it’s important. I need to have confidence (that change will eventually happen), but I don’t have it.

John Bailey

Professor of government, Georgetown University

The short-term problem is getting the patient’s heart jump-started--that’s the currency issue. The long-term question is: Can the existing system of presidencialismo solve Mexico’s problems? (President Ernesto) Zedillo is reaching out to more political parties than his predecessors, creating a kind of frente amplio , or broad front. The old notion was that the government consulted groups and individual actors, and they set policy. A new style would involve political parties more broadly to set an agenda for political and economic reform.

Susan Kaufman Purcell

Vice president of Americas Society

Probably not, if what is meant is that the system remains as centralized as it is. I thing the government would agree, in that President Zedillo has put a high priority on democratization. The best way to change the dominance of the PRI is to make the electoral process more of a level playing field, which is what the president is aiming at. Usually, a dominant party does not agree to new rules out of the goodness of its heart. It’s because society is demanding it.

Rolando Cordera

Political economist, director of the weekly TV show “Nexos”

(The future of the PRI) depends on how fast it becomes a credible political party. If it is unable to implement reforms, the PRI could be a disruptive force. The PRI is not a political party but a coalition of economic and political interests throughout the country. It has to become a political party in order to implement reforms.