USGS Too Important to Be Lost to Political Whims : Although predicting temblors is a hit-and-miss science, it would be short-sighted to abandon research now being done.

Earthquake prediction research is a small but crucial part of the work of thS. Geological Survey, whose very existence is threatened by Washington budget-cutters.

It is an inexact science with a mixed history.

In 1974, Chinese seismologists issued a major earthquake warning to Liaoning Province based on dropping water tables and a disquieting cessation of minor foreshocks. Within six hours of the warning, a massive quake leveled 90% of the region’s mostly evacuated structures, with a loss of only 300 lives.

Yet two years later, in Tangshan Province, a quake that happened without warning signs caused an estimated 700,000 fatalities.

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In this country, the already underfunded USGS scientists continue prediction studies. As with any emerging science, there are hits and misses. The USGS successfully predicted a 1978 magnitude-7.8 quake in Mexico but has so far missed on an overdue California quake in Parkfield, Calif., atop the San Andreas fault. Another well-publicized miss at Mammoth Lakes dogs USGS researchers, where a predicted volcanic eruption has yet to materialize. And we all know how our local quakes, including the one that happened a year ago Tuesday, have been nasty surprises.

Some scientists think prediction has no future. Others are more optimistic. While there are no guarantees, it would be short-sighted to abandon the research now being done. Each miss highlights our lack of understanding and drives home the need for continued study.

Such research is not always politically popular. Ask the people in Mammoth Lakes, who grudgingly built the “Mammoth Scenic Highway” when the USGS pointed out that the only other road out of Mammoth Lakes was a potential site for volcanic activity. In a spirit of “kill the messenger,” the citizenry promptly recalled the two county supervisors supporting the USGS warning. After all, prospective condo buyers lose enthusiasm when confronted by the prospect of residing on top of a potential Mt. St. Helens.

Let Congress whack away at the federal budget. The Postal Service? Turn it over to Fed-Ex. The FCC? Sell it to Rupert Murdoch. The Government Printing Office? Hire Kinko’s.

But the USGS? That’s one agency too important for us to trust to a bunch of politicos unable to see beyond 1996.