THE TIMES POLL : Brown Chips Into Wilson’s Advantage

With two weeks left before voters declare their choice for governor, Democrat Kathleen Brown has gained ground on her Republican opponent, Gov. Pete Wilson, but still trails him significantly among those likely to cast ballots, the Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

The state treasurer lags behind Wilson among registered voters by a spare 48% to 45%, better than the 8-point margin of 50% to 42% found in the last Times poll, published Oct. 13.

Among likely voters, Wilson holds a 52%-43% lead, slightly smaller than the 54%-41% advantage he held earlier.

Although the findings come as good news for Brown, the poll underscores broad difficulties facing her campaign. Wilson remains the choice of voters when they are asked which candidate is best able to handle the important issues of crime, immigration and the economy. While Brown is popular among younger voters traditionally less likely to vote, Wilson has a strong hold on the more dependable older voters. And Brown continues to have problems holding on to her Democratic base, the poll found.

Still, said Poll Director John Brennan, “the window of opportunity for Brown is still open. . . . This race is still very unstable.”

That is because of Wilson’s own frail position. The governor’s job rating remains negative, with 51% of the voters disapproving of the way he has handled his job and 43% approving. His favorability rating improved slightly from earlier in October, with 49% saying they liked him, compared to 47% earlier. Forty-five percent disliked him, slightly less than the 49% who did so earlier. It was the first time his favorability rating edged onto positive ground since May, 1991.

Despite that slight movement, negative feelings about the state and its economy persist, the Times poll found. Fully 84% of registered voters believe the state remains in a recession--33% characterize it as a “serious” economic downturn. Almost two-thirds said the state is on the wrong track, with only 27% saying things are moving in the right direction.

Although those numbers would traditionally indicate trouble for an incumbent, in this case they emphasize the contradictory nature of the campaign for governor: Wilson is almost matching Brown even among those who have grave concerns over the state he has headed for nearly four years.

Among those who believe the state is headed in the wrong direction, Brown holds a slim 48%-45% margin. Those who think the state is in a serious recession favor her only by 47%-45%, a statistically insignificant margin.

“These people should be voting for her,” Brennan said. “People are saying the state is going in the wrong direction, that the state is in a serious recession--but they’re voting for the incumbent.”

In another finding, the poll set President Clinton’s job approval rating among Californians at a stable 49% positive and 45% negative, virtually the same as it was two weeks ago despite positive foreign news in the interim.

The Times Poll questioned 1,235 registered voters, of whom 762 are considered likely to vote Nov. 8. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is three percentage points in either direction; for likely voters it is four points in either direction. Margins of error for smaller subgroups may be larger. Participants were questioned Saturday through Tuesday.

The poll results essentially put Brown back where she was in early September, before a hard-hitting barrage of negative advertising by Wilson caused her standing to plummet. Then, Wilson led by two points among registered voters and nine points among likely voters.

Overall, the poll found that Brown’s favorability rating has rebounded somewhat from early October. In the earlier poll, Brown recorded her first-ever negative favorability ratings, as her numbers dropped to 39% positive and 42% negative. In the past two weeks, however, she regained her positive rating and she now stands at 47% favorable and 40% unfavorable.

Unfortunately for Brown, the latest poll also demonstrates that her loudly touted economic plan, on which she has hinged the rest of her campaign, has failed to boost her substantially among voters.

Fully 41% of voters said they had not heard of the plan, which Brown has been hawking in campaign events and television advertising.

Of the 57% of voters who had heard of her plan, it was nearly a wash. Nineteen percent said it made them more likely to vote for her and 14% said it made them less likely to side with Brown, the poll found.

But the existence of the plan could account for a marginally better score for Brown among voters who were asked which candidate was best equipped to handle the economy. In early October, Wilson led Brown on that score by a 12-point margin, 46% to 34%. In the most recent poll, the gap closed to 42% to 36%.

Still, Brown has not managed to overcome Wilson’s lead on that issue and others judged important to California voters this election year.

When asked which candidate can best handle immigration, Wilson beats Brown 50% to 27%, a margin slightly smaller than the 53%-27% margin seen in early October. On crime, Wilson wins 55% to 24%, again a substantial margin, if somewhat smaller than the 58%-22% gap seen earlier.

On the gut-level issue of leadership, Wilson is considered better by 53% of voters to Brown’s 28%--a broader success than the earlier 49%-28% finding.

Brown continues to do better on the issue of education, where she holds a 44%-25% advantage, and empathy, where she is favored 42%-28%. Both findings are nearly identical to those in the earlier poll.

The poll found that voters continue to have varied reasons for supporting each candidate. In Brown’s case, 16% of those who liked her said they “just like her” and another 10% said they felt good about her because of her father, former Gov. Edmund G. (Pat) Brown Sr., or her brother, Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr. Nine percent said they agreed with her views and the same percentage said they liked her because she was not Wilson.

Brown’s family ties were her greatest liability as well. Fully 24% of those who dislike her said it was because of her family; another 12% said she was too liberal and 11% characterized her as “wishy-washy.”

Wilson supporters were more likely to cite issues as their reason for liking the governor. Seventeen percent specified his views on crime and 16% his immigration policies. Twelve percent said “he’s trying” and another 12% listed his overall record as governor.

Among those who disliked Wilson, 10% said he was ineffective, 10% said he had hurt education, 10% cited his views on immigration and 10% disliked his record as governor.

The poll made it clear that voters are drawing their own distinctions between the candidates’ positions on immigration and their views about Proposition 187, the initiative that would restrict education and non-emergency health services to illegal immigrants.

Asked hypothetically in early October how they felt about the candidates’ positions on the proposition, voters clearly indicated that Wilson’s support of Proposition 187 helped him and Brown’s opposition hurt her.

Now, according to Brennan, “the results are more equivocal.”

Only 30% said Wilson’s support would make them more likely to vote for him and 24% said they were less likely to throw support his way. That 6-point gain replaces a 13-point margin in the earlier poll.

As for Brown, 23% said they would be more likely to side with her because of her opposition and 27% said they were less likely to vote for her. That 4-point loss replaces a 15-point loss in the earlier poll.

Still, Wilson was clearly seen as the best candidate to handle the immigration problem overall, suggesting that Brown will have to make a far stronger attack against Wilson’s immigration policies if she is to connect with voters who believe the subject is important.

Demographically, Brown remains in trouble even within her own party.

While Wilson holds the allegiance of 80% of Republicans, Brown is supported by only two-thirds of her party. Strikingly, more than a quarter of Democratic women--26% of Brown’s purportedly strongest base--said they planned to vote for Wilson. Twenty-eight percent of Democratic men put themselves in Wilson’s column. In contrast, only 16% each of GOP men and women said they plan to vote for Brown.

In the last two weeks, Brown did gain among lower-income voters and independents.

Brown’s strongest supporters are Latinos (65% support her), liberals (76%), college graduates (51%) and those under age 30 (50%).

Wilson’s strongest partisans are whites (53% support him), conservatives (77%), those making more than $40,000 (52%), those with a high school education or less (53%) and those ages 65 and older (55%).

The poll illustrated one potential opening for the candidates in the final two weeks before Election Day: While most voters say they will stick with the choices they have made, about one in five were open to changing their minds.

Twenty-four percent of Brown’s partisans said they would consider another choice, and 19% of Wilson supporters said they could change their minds.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,659 adults statewide, by telephone, Saturday through Tuesday. Included in the sample are 1,235 registered voters and 762 likely voters. Interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform more closely with census figures for sex, race, age and education. The margin of sampling error for the total sample and the sample of all registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for likely voters it is 4 points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as the wording of questions and the order in which they are presented.

More on the Governor’s Race

* Reprints of The Times’ profiles on Kathleen Brown and Gov. Pete Wilson and commentary by each are available by fax or mail from Times on Demand. Call 808-8463 and enter *8630. For the Wilson profile, order item No. 5502; the Brown profile is No. 5503. The commentary is item No. 5504. Each item is $3 plus 50 cents delivery.

Details on using Times electronic services and ordering by mail, Page B4

Closer Contests

Less than two weeks before Election Day, support for Proposition 187 has dropped measurably while the race for governor has tightened, the latest Los Angeles Times poll has found.

If the November, 1994, general election for governor of California were being held today, for whom would you vote?

-10/25- -10/11- -9/11- Registered Likely Reg. Likely Reg. Likely voters voters voters voters voters voters Kathleen Brown 45% 43% 42% 41% 44% 41% Pete Wilson 48% 52% 50% 54% 46% 50% Someone else 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Don’t know 6% 4% 7% 4% 9% 8%

****

(AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS)

What is your impression of Brown? Favorable: 47% Unfavorable: 40% What is your impression of Wilson? Favorable: 49% Unfavorable: 45% Why do you like Brown?** Nothing in particular/Just like her: 16% Like her father; brother/Like her family: 10% Her views are like mine: 9% Why do you like Wilson?** His views on crime: 17% His views on illegal immigration/Supports Prop. 187: 16% His record as governor: 12% Why do you dislike Brown?** Dislike her father; brother/Dislike her family: 24% She’s too liberal: 12% She’s too wishy-washy: 11% Why do you dislike Wilson?** Does nothing/He’s ineffective: 10% His views on illegal immigration/Supports Prop. 187: 10% Policies hurt education: 10% ****

Which candidate for governor: Wilson Brown

****

How has Wilson’s support for/Brown’s opposition to Prop. 187 affected your vote for governor?

Wilson’s support Brown’s opposition of Prop. 187 to Prop. 187 More likely to vote 30% 23% Less like to vote 24% 27% No effect 44% 49% Don’t know 2% 1%

****

(AMONG LIKELY VOTERS)

Prop. 187 (The Illegal Aliens, Ineligibility for Public Services, Verification and Reporting Initiative)

When the ballot wording is read When a description is read Vote for 47% 51% Vote against 37% 41% Don’t know 16% 8%

****

(AMONG LIKELY VOTERS) Why are you voting for Prop. 187?** Do something about illegal immigration: 35% Stop immigrants from using public services: 18% Will save tax money: 15% Citizens can’t get benefits: 13% Why are you voting against Prop. 187?** Will take children out of school/Could increase crime: 24% Won’t work/Doesn’t solve problem/Poorly written: 20% It’s inhumane: 15% Racist/Anti-Latino/Anti-Mexican: 14% ****

(AMONG LIKELY VOTERS)

Prop. 184 (The Increased Sentences Repeat Offenders Initiative Statute)

When the ballot wording is read When a description is read Vote for 43% 57% Vote against 19% 32% Don’t know 38% 11%

****

Prop. 186 (The Health Services, Taxes, Initiative Constitutional Amendment)

When the ballot wording is read When a description is read Vote for 16% 23% Vote against 44% 69% Don’t know 40% 8%

****

Prop. 188 (The Smoking and Tobacco Products, Local Preemption, Statewide Regulation Initiative)

When the ballot wording is read When a description is read Vote for 21% 37% Vote against 43% 55% Don’t know 36% 8%

Note: Numbers may not add up to 100 because not all categories are shown

** Accepted two replies. Top mentioned items displayed.

Source: L.A. Times polls of California voters.